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Denmark's right-wing parties win control of parliament—by one seat

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(Click any image to enlarge) In Denmark's elections last week, the right-wing blue bloc narrowly captured a majority of seats in parliament, edging out the left-wing red bloc by just one seat. The new prime minister is likely to be Lars Løkke Rasmussen, even though his party, Venstre (V) came in third while losing almost a third of its seats. The Social Democrats (A) of the outgoing prime minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, won the most votes and improved their standing over 2011, yet they lost the battle for control of the country's goverment. Such are the vagaries of coalition politics.

Polling had been close in the days leading up to the election, showing a slight lead for the blue bloc. In the end, the polls did very well in predicting the votes share of all parties except one (see this table compiled by community member nimh).

As we have seen throughout the world, we're once again witnessing the rise of populist parties. The new Alternative party, which supported the Social Democrats, fared well for its first election, taking eight seats. But the headline-generating story of the election was the success of the right-wing, anti-immigrant Danish People's Party (O), which nearly doubled its vote share and surged to second place, surprising even the party's own leaders. The party rejects multiculturalism and wants to limit immigration even more than it is already, despite their success in 2002 in lobbying for the passage of what was then called the strictest immigration policy in Europe.

The People's Party appears likely to support a center-right government without formally joining it, as it did from 2001-2011; that would allow Rasmussen, the leader of the diminished Venstre, to become prime minister. As the editor of the newspaper Politiken put it, the People's Party wants "to pull the strings without being seen to do so." You can see how both coalitions are expected to unfold in the chart below:

Below the fold, we have more maps showing results for every party, with comparisons to the last election in 2011. (For more background, see this post by community member Niels.)

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