What do 2017's special elections forecast for 2018? The House is very much in...
With our new Special Elections Index, we have shown that special elections do indeed tell us a lot about upcoming congressional elections. At least, they can show us when really good or really bad...
View ArticleIt's just an ultra-low-turnout special election ... (but it helps predict...
We’ve seen some truly amazing results in legislative special elections lately. Democrats have outperformed the 2016 presidential margins in every single race this year as of this writing, flipping four...
View ArticleA review of 2018's stunning special elections results
As of this writing, we’ve had 18 standard D vs. R special elections in 2018, and the results couldn’t be more clear. Democrats have flipped 6 out of 16 Republican-held districts, and outperformed...
View ArticleWhy a recent Democratic win may bode well for Conor Lamb in PA-18
Last year, about a month before the runoff in the heavily watched special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, another race in the same corner of the state quietly slipped by with little...
View ArticleWhy Conor Lamb's victory should totally and completely freak out Republicans
A Democrat just flipped a House seat in a district Donald Trump won by 20 points on Tuesday night. So what? Well, there are only 119 House seats where Trump’s margin was narrower than that. Democrats...
View ArticleRed states have the blues in special elections
We have more than a year’s worth of special elections results in the Trump era to peruse now, and we’ve learned some valuable things. The most striking, of course, is that special elections as a whole...
View ArticleYup, it's the year of the woman. At least for Democrats.
There’s been a lot of excitement over the sheer number of Democratic women running for Congress this year; women have also broken records as donors to campaigns. But will women be able to win. Well,...
View ArticleNo, Democrats aren't sucking at special elections all of a sudden (and no,...
There’s no question that special elections are telling us that this year is a much better environment for Democrats than we’ve had in quite some time. In the graphic at the top of this post, you can...
View ArticleDear Republicans: Please ignore the special elections. Nothing to see here....
For reality-based observers, 2018 is shaping up to be an ugly year for Republicans. While we don't usually give advice to the Republicans, we do have one suggestion for them: ignore everything.But for...
View ArticleDemocratic women have obliterated the all-time record for number of House...
Now that primary season has ended, the full extent of this year’s record-breaking number of women running for the House couldn’t be clearer: As you can see above, the number of Democratic women winning...
View ArticleGo F****** Vote.
The yard signs are planted all snug in the ground.Canvassers are nursing their throats.The big day is here! It’s time! Let’s go!Get out and go fucking vote!
View ArticleRequiem for a California Dream
Once upon a time, there was a tropical paradise where all were welcome to claim their slice of the American Dream. They settled into their ranch houses with perpetually green lawns; palm trees lined...
View ArticleWhat do 2017's special elections forecast for 2018? The House is very much in...
With our new Special Elections Index, we have shown that special elections do indeed tell us a lot about upcoming congressional elections. At least, they can show us when really good or really bad...
View ArticleIt's just an ultra-low-turnout special election ... (but it helps predict...
We’ve seen some truly amazing results in legislative special elections lately. Democrats have outperformed the 2016 presidential margins in every single race this year as of this writing, flipping four...
View ArticleA review of 2018's stunning special elections results
As of this writing, we’ve had 18 standard D vs. R special elections in 2018, and the results couldn’t be more clear. Democrats have flipped 6 out of 16 Republican-held districts, and outperformed...
View ArticleWhy a recent Democratic win may bode well for Conor Lamb in PA-18
Last year, about a month before the runoff in the heavily watched special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, another race in the same corner of the state quietly slipped by with little...
View ArticleWhy Conor Lamb's victory should totally and completely freak out Republicans
A Democrat just flipped a House seat in a district Donald Trump won by 20 points on Tuesday night. So what? Well, there are only 119 House seats where Trump’s margin was narrower than that. Democrats...
View ArticleRed states have the blues in special elections
We have more than a year’s worth of special elections results in the Trump era to peruse now, and we’ve learned some valuable things. The most striking, of course, is that special elections as a whole...
View ArticleYup, it's the year of the woman. At least for Democrats.
There’s been a lot of excitement over the sheer number of Democratic women running for Congress this year; women have also broken records as donors to campaigns. But will women be able to win. Well,...
View ArticleNo, Democrats aren't sucking at special elections all of a sudden (and no,...
There’s no question that special elections are telling us that this year is a much better environment for Democrats than we’ve had in quite some time. In the graphic at the top of this post, you can...
View Article