With three retirements of pragmatic (no, they are not moderate) Republican members of the House in the last week leaving three vulnerable open seats ripe for a Democratic pickup, it’s beginning to look a lot like 2008 again—except worse for Republicans. We’re currently up to 17 empty seats for Republicans, a number they did not reach until December of 2007 in the 2008 cycle, the last big Democratic wave year.
When you’re trying to hold on to power in the House, you want as few open seats as possible: Despite Congress’s deep unpopularity, incumbents simply have a better chance to win than newcomers. There’s just no way to spin this. But, oh, some will try:
“It’s not about the current climate,” NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers said Friday in a brief interview. “We are going to see more retirements because right now we are so below the historic average of retirements,” he said, noting that Reichert and Dent brought the total to seven, far less than the typical two dozen who depart each cycle.
Hoo boy. Well, yes, two dozen is typical for the total number of House Republicans who retire each cycle. But that counts all retirements, including those who leave in order to run for a different office. Stivers here is comparing these apples to the oranges of the eight (not seven) Republicans who have outright called it quits so far this year without any other political ambitions. The apples he should be comparing to number 17 in total, which includes members of the House running for senator or governor. And yes, as we can see above, 17 open seats this early in the cycle is most definitely not typical.
But what about the Democrats?