Don't panic about the polls—but you can still worry
Yeah, it’s hard. But take a look at the graph above that shows the margins in national presidential polls for the final year over the past three cycles. The spread between Hillary Clinton and Donald...
View ArticleJust how big a loser is Donald Trump?
It’s difficult to understand the magnitude of large numbers. When we hear that Donald Trump lost almost a billion dollars in 1995, or $1,447,218,350.00 in 2016 dollars, it sounds huge — tremendous! —...
View ArticleRed alert! Trumpocalypse approaching: Severe and increasing risk of...
The nightmare that is a strengthening Trumpocalypse is bearing down on the ever-so-deserving Republican Party today, with events escalating rapidly.Republicans are demoralized, desperately looking for...
View ArticleWhat to expect when you're expecting Trumpageddon
The state of the race is currently at a Category IV Trumpocalypse, as polls and forecast models struggle to catch up to current events. The effects of Donald Trump’s bragging about sexual assault have...
View ArticleToday we stand together, and make our voices heard.
First, he went after Mexican immigrants.And today, we stand together, arm-in-arm with our Latino sisters and brothers, family and friends, and make our voices heard.He went after Muslims.And today, we...
View ArticleThe polls were well and truly f***ed. Again.
Holy hell. What a turn in U.S. history. And we didn’t even see it coming—because the polls were way, way off, as they were in 2014. We found ourselves facing vote margins in the presidential race that...
View ArticleThat we're even talking about today's special election in Kansas is the big...
A special election? In the middle of April? In a congressional district where Democrats routinely pull in a measly 30-some odd percent of the vote?Snore …The most exciting thing about today’s race in...
View ArticleVoters just say no to Trump
This is an ordinary special election for a vacant House seat:This is a special election on Trump:Any questions? 🍳
View ArticleWhen Democrats show up, Democrats win. This year, Democrats are showing up
Tuesday night, Democrats won two legislative special elections in Trump territory, flipping the seats from Republican control. The results were stunning and dramatic. In the case of New York’s 9th...
View ArticleGeorgia's 6th: Another district that never should have been competitive
Here we are again! Another major competitive House special election that never should have been on the table. This should have been another ho-hum, dull, unremarked-upon election that quietly slots in...
View ArticleAmericans now overwhelmingly support marriage equality
As we celebrate freedom on July 4 and after a little more than two years of marriage equality in the United States (and with Germany joining the club just a few days ago!), it’s time for an update on...
View ArticleThis is not another scary 'Trump voters still like Trump' story
There is, seemingly, an epidemic of “Trump voters still like Trump!” stories in recent months. But what about everybody else? Fortunately, Pew has come to our rescue with a pair of open-ended panel...
View ArticleFrenetic pace of GOP retirements bodes well for Democrats—and should frighten...
With three retirements of pragmatic (no, they are not moderate) Republican members of the House in the last week leaving three vulnerable open seats ripe for a Democratic pickup, it’s beginning to look...
View ArticleDemocrats have bounced back in districts that swung hard to Trump—and almost...
There has been considerable consternation and many pixels spilled about the regions of the country where the Democratic margin in the 2016 presidential election fell sharply compared to 2012, including...
View ArticleDemocrats are surging in special elections, and that's not what we've been...
Here at Daily Kos Elections, we’ve watched special elections come and go for years, and we’d gotten accustomed to what used to be a normal occurrence: Democrats flailing in special elections.Not this...
View ArticleThe year in special elections: Wow!!
The last special elections of 2017 are in the books, and what a year it has been! Drama, excitement, narrative-busting, and Democrats coming out to vote in droves, all of it capped by Doug Jones...
View ArticleWomen are stepping up to run for Congress like never before
A record-shattering number of women are planning to run for the House or Senate in 2018 as a major party candidate, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. And it...
View ArticleThere's lots of Republican-held open House seats already (and there's plenty...
Here at Daily Kos Elections, we’ve been keeping track of retirements from the House all year long, because a House seat without an incumbent is easier for the opposite party to win. Our spreadsheet has...
View ArticleIntroducing the Special Elections Index: This year is the best environment...
The electoral environment this year is like no other in recent memory. Of course, a lot of things in this country seem to be unlike anything in recent memory. But politically speaking, Democrats are...
View ArticleSpecial elections are correlated with House election results—and that's good...
Historically, special elections for state legislatures have tended to fly under the radar except among the more dedicated elections geeks, such as reside here at Daily Kos Elections. But as is our...
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