The electoral environment this year is like no other in recent memory. Of course, a lot of things in this country seem to be unlike anything in recent memory. But politically speaking, Democrats are far more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans, and liberals are more politically engaged than conservatives. And Democrats are recruiting like gangbusters while Republicans are running for the exits.
In special elections, Democrats have been overperforming the presidential results from both 2012 and 2016 in election after election. In 2017, Democrats flipped 14 Republican-held state legislative districts in special elections—and the Alabama Senate seat (!)—while Republicans flipped just three.
So Democrats are doing well right now, but just how well? What’s our baseline? It’s better than the past few years for sure, but is this how well Democrats were doing back in 2006, or 2008, the last times we saw big Democratic wave elections?
Now we can answer that question, courtesy of our new Special Elections Index seen above. And the answer is big: Democrats haven’t performed this well in special elections since the late 1980s.
What exactly is the Special Elections Index, and what can it tell us about the 2018 midterms? Quite a lot, it turns out.