Compared to 2008, Hillary Clinton is doing better in most primaries—and caucuses
While we wait for returns in Mississippi and Michigan, it’s worth taking a peek at how 2016’s Democratic primary results compare so far to 2008. For electoral analysts, we’re lucky this year in that...
View ArticleHere's what the delegate race looks like after Michigan and Mississippi,...
Tuesday night brought a dramatic win for Bernie Sanders in Michigan, together with one of the biggest polling failures ever. We also saw Hillary Clinton winning by a huge margin—particularly for a...
View ArticleGraphing the delegates: Where the primaries stand after Super Tuesday II
Once again, Tuesday brought us a dramatic, late election night, and now it’s time to check in on the delegate race in both primaries. While not all delegate awards have been determined yet (due in part...
View ArticleGraphing the delegates: The curtain comes down on Act I
We’ve hit a natural intermission in primary season, with just two upcoming contests in the span of three weeks. It’s time to take stock of the delegate contests once again, using Taniel’s spreadsheet...
View ArticleClinton v. Clinton: An updated comparison of the 2008 and 2016 primaries
With the completion of the Wisconsin primary, in which Hillary Clinton yet again did just a little better than she did in 2008, it’s time to update the Democratic primary comparison graph. We first...
View ArticleGraphing the delegates: The mathematical elimination of Ted Cruz
In New York’s primary election, Ted Cruz was the night’s biggest loser, coming in third place (and even fourth place behind Ben Carson in some areas) and earning zero delegates. At the same time, it...
View ArticleHarvard Youth Poll shows biggest ever presidential Democratic advantage
Harvard’s Institute of Politics released their Spring 2016 Youth Survey yesterday, and it has some eye-popping numbers indeed. In the presidential contest, testing Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump,...
View ArticleGraphing the delegates: A big Tuesday night for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
Tuesday’s primary elections in Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland gave Donald Trump five massive wins together with an even more massive delegate haul, propelling his lead...
View ArticleDonald Trump has pathetic single-digit favorability and a record deficit...
Donald Trump has been amazingly successful in uniting Latino voters against him, according to recent polling by Latino Decisions, Gallup, and USC/LATimes/GQR, and he’s dragging the rest of the GOP...
View ArticleGOP favorability, already underwater for a decade, gets totaled by runaway...
Recently, we’ve seen two polls with decades of data post record low favorability ratings for the Republican Party: Pew and CBS/NYT. Of course, we know better than to pay attention to any one or two...
View ArticleDemocratic primary voters look like the real America. Republicans? Not so much
It’s no secret that the Republican Party is somewhat lacking in diversity. While it’s true that Republican voters are not all the same—there’s white evangelical Christians, white wealthy businessmen,...
View ArticleIt's not only Latinos: Donald Trump is also driving Asian Americans toward...
In 2014, exit polls showed a dramatic reversal of fortune for Democrats among Asian American voters. After President Obama walloped Mitt Romney 73-26 in 2012, Republicans actually had a one point...
View ArticleAnother historic Donald Trump first: His convention managed to make him look...
Now that Democrats and Republicans select their candidates for president via primaries rather than back-room deals among delegates handpicked by party leaders, the entire point of a national convention...
View ArticleHeckuva bounce, Donnie
It’s the most tremendous post-convention polling bounce in years, with one gaudy lead for Hillary Clinton after another being released in national polls in recent days. And it keeps on going. State...
View ArticleBlack voters don't love Donald Trump. In case it wasn't obvious already.
Despite repeated proclamations to the contrary by none other than Donald Trump himself, Trump is not doing well with African Americans voters. In fact, he’s struggling to stay above the zero percent...
View ArticleTrump, destroyer of Parties
Donald Trump is a force of his nature, a political storm unto himself, and although we scorn him, we ignore him at our peril. But how strong a storm has he become? We are in need of a method of rating...
View ArticleVending machines are more deadly than terrorist refugees.
Sources:LightningLocal meteoritesVending machinesRefugees and illegal immigrants
View ArticleShifting sands of party support sort the nation: Democrats diversify,...
With a treasure trove of data and trends, Pew has released a report on party affiliation recently that’s well worth the time to read through. The big picture shows the pool of registered voters...
View ArticleA fascinating look inside the making of a poll
Here at Daily Kos Elections, we pay a lot of attention to polls. Part of that is paying attention to the errors in polls, so that we can tell the difference between normal poll-to-poll variations and...
View ArticleAn 'education gap' is emerging in the polls, and it's massive
Perhaps the most dramatic change in polls this year is related to education levels. As seen above, voters with a college degree favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by an outsized ~20-30 points...
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